A study by researchers in the Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur predicts that the fourth wave of Covid-19 may set in around June in the country and would last for about 4 months. The severity however will depend on the vaccination status and administration of booster doses.
The research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of the Mathematics department of IIT Kanpur. They used a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe.
The research predicts that the fourth wave will start from June 22, 2022, peak on August 23, 2022 and end on October 24, 2022. There is also a chance that a new variant of coronavirus may emerge and have an impact on the analysis.
There is also no guarantee that the new variant will be less severe than the previously identified ones.
